| Limitations of 10 year risk estimates |
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Notes: First, short-term risk estimates over 10 years are extremely sensitive to the patient's age such that older individuals are more likely to be targeted for therapy. Second, cardiovascular risk scoring strategies tend to be more accurate among younger individuals because traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as dyslipidemia, hypertension, and cigarette smoking are most strongly associated with premature CVD. Third, with increasing age, the increasing risk of other age-related fatal diseases such as cancer reduces the accuracy of risk assessment scoring (the concept of 'competing risk'). Finally, there are no randomized trials showing optimal outcomes based on FRS for guiding therapy. Furthermore, no risk equation is perfect. Though an individual whose risk is 30% at 10 years is clearly at increased risk compared with someone whose risk is 10%, one cannot predict with certainty that either individual will or will not develop a CVD event. It must also be recognized that the risk categories that are widely used internationally (LR <10%, intermediate risk (IR) 10%-19%, and high risk 20% or more) are completely arbitrary and have been chosen by consensus rather than by scientific evidence. Accordingly, clinical judgement is essential.